Rumour track record · what became of the transfer talk

Which rumours to take seriously.

Every rumour on a club page comes with four things a sporting director asks before picking up the phone: who says it and how their earlier talk turned out, how hot it is (independent outlets carrying the same link, counted once per media group, and since when), whether the move is realistic (our own estimate of this player joining this club in a window, his contract, how often his club sells) and the source's track record on the same club. The most credible and most widely reported come first.

The record behind it: every Guardian Rumour Mill column since its first, each player it linked with a club checked against the moves that actually happened. Of rumours we could trace since 2004-05, came true within half a year. Since 2020-21, when the column became shorter and more selective, of did.

Linked in the press now · most credible and most reported first · rumours, not facts

Manchester United want Finn Jeltsch · VfB Stuttgart
Manchester United have been linked with Finn Jeltsch. The Guardian
Source
The Rumour Mill's own round-up:
Heat
independent outlets, reports since (The Guardian, CaughtOffside)
Reality
We put this move at in a window (VfB Stuttgart selling him , Manchester United the buyer if he goes ). months left on his contract. VfB Stuttgart have sold players for a fee since .
Track record
- : the same source linked Rúben Neves with Man Utd; he .
- : the same source linked Tyrique George with Man Utd; he .
Tottenham Hotspur want Cody Gakpo · Liverpool FC
Tottenham Hotspur have been linked with Cody Gakpo. The Guardian
Source
The Rumour Mill's own round-up:
Heat
independent outlets, reports since (Daily Mail, The Guardian)
Reality
We put this move at in a window (Liverpool FC selling him , Tottenham Hotspur the buyer if he goes ). months left on his contract. Liverpool FC have sold players for a fee since .
Track record
- : the same source linked Maghnes Akliouche with Tottenham; he .
- : the same source linked Raheem Sterling with Tottenham; he .
Chelsea want Eduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid
Chelsea have been linked with Eduardo Camavinga. The Guardian
Source
The Rumour Mill's own round-up:
Heat
independent outlet, reports since (The Guardian)
Reality
We put this move at in a window (Real Madrid selling him , Chelsea the buyer if he goes ). months left on his contract. Real Madrid have sold players for a fee since .
Track record
- : the same source linked Tylel Tati with Chelsea; he .
- : the same source linked Raheem Sterling with Chelsea; he .
Chelsea want Alex Scott · AFC Bournemouth
Chelsea have been linked with Alex Scott. The Guardian
Source
The Rumour Mill's own round-up:
Heat
independent outlet, reports since (The Guardian)
Reality
We put this move at in a window (AFC Bournemouth selling him , Chelsea the buyer if he goes ). months left on his contract. AFC Bournemouth have sold players for a fee since .
Track record
- : the same source linked Tylel Tati with Chelsea; he .
- : the same source linked Eduardo Camavinga with Chelsea; he .
Brentford want Ilyas Ansah · Hull City
Brentford have been linked with Ilyas Ansah. The Guardian
Source
The Rumour Mill's own round-up:
Heat
independent outlet, reports since (The Guardian)
Reality
We put this move at in a window (Hull City selling him , Brentford the buyer if he goes ). Hull City have sold players for a fee since .
Track record
- : the same source linked Matteo Cancellieri with Brentford; he .
- : the same source linked Artem Dovbyk with Brentford; he .
Chelsea want Lamine Camara · AS Monaco
Chelsea have been linked with Lamine Camara. The Guardian
Source
The Rumour Mill's own round-up:
Heat
independent outlet, reports since (The Guardian)
Reality
We put this move at in a window (AS Monaco selling him , Chelsea the buyer if he goes ). months left on his contract. AS Monaco have sold players for a fee since .
Track record
- : the same source linked Tylel Tati with Chelsea; he .
- : the same source linked Eduardo Camavinga with Chelsea; he .
Fiorentina want Joshua Zirkzee · Manchester United
Fiorentina have been linked with Joshua Zirkzee. The Guardian
Source
The Rumour Mill's own round-up:
Heat
independent outlet, reports since (The Guardian)
Reality
We put this move at in a window (Manchester United selling him , Fiorentina the buyer if he goes ). months left on his contract. Manchester United have sold players for a fee since .
Track record
- : the same source linked Kyle Walker-Peters with Fiorentina; he .
- : the same source linked Soungoutou Magassa with Fiorentina; he .
Manchester City want Cody Gakpo · Liverpool FC
Manchester City have been linked with Cody Gakpo. The Guardian
Source
The Rumour Mill's own round-up:
Heat
independent outlet, reports since (The Guardian)
Reality
We put this move at in a window (Liverpool FC selling him , Manchester City the buyer if he goes ). months left on his contract. Liverpool FC have sold players for a fee since .
Track record
- : the same source linked Alessandro Bastoni with Man City; he .
- : the same source linked Elliot Anderson with Man City; he .
Manchester City want Tim Iroegbunam · Hull City
Manchester City have been linked with Tim Iroegbunam. The Guardian
Source
The Rumour Mill's own round-up:
Heat
independent outlet, reports since (The Guardian)
Reality
We put this move at in a window (Hull City selling him , Manchester City the buyer if he goes ). months left on his contract. Hull City have sold players for a fee since .
Track record
- : the same source linked Alessandro Bastoni with Man City; he .
- : the same source linked Elliot Anderson with Man City; he .
Aston Villa want Rafael Leão · AC Milan
Aston Villa have been linked with Rafael Leão. The Guardian
Source
The Rumour Mill's own round-up:
Heat
independent outlet, report since (The Guardian)
Reality
We put this move at in a window (AC Milan selling him , Aston Villa the buyer if he goes ). months left on his contract. AC Milan have sold players for a fee since .
Track record
- : the same source linked Tammy Abraham with Aston Villa; he .
- : the same source linked Axel Disasi with Aston Villa; he .
Aston Villa want Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace
Aston Villa have been linked with Jean-Philippe Mateta. The Guardian
Source
The Rumour Mill's own round-up:
Heat
independent outlet, report since (The Guardian)
Reality
We put this move at in a window (Crystal Palace selling him , Aston Villa the buyer if he goes ). months left on his contract. Crystal Palace have sold players for a fee since .
Track record
- : the same source linked Tammy Abraham with Aston Villa; he .
- : the same source linked Axel Disasi with Aston Villa; he .
Brentford want Matias Fernandez-Pardo · Newcastle United
Brentford have been linked with Matias Fernandez-Pardo. The Guardian
Source
The Rumour Mill's own round-up:
Heat
independent outlet, report since (The Guardian)
Reality
We put this move at in a window (Newcastle United selling him , Brentford the buyer if he goes ). months left on his contract. Newcastle United have sold players for a fee since .
Track record
- : the same source linked Matteo Cancellieri with Brentford; he .
- : the same source linked Artem Dovbyk with Brentford; he .

How we rate a source

A source is judged against what similar reports did, not against an average: a paper that only repeats deadline-day certainties would otherwise look brilliant. For each outlet we add up how often the rumours it was credited with would have come true from anyone (from what each rumour shows: repeat reports, how many clubs it names, the window, the player's value), and compare that with how many did. Hover a label for the record behind it.

reliable: its reports came true more often than similar reports from anyone, by more than luck explains
about average: no clear difference from similar reports: most outlets, and the Rumour Mill's own round-ups
speculative: its reports came true less often than similar reports, by more than luck explains
unproven: too few of its reports traced to judge

Honest caveats: most items are the column's own round-ups, so most rumours today carry its label, about average; an outlet is known only when the column links to it or names it. Very few outlets differ from the rest by more than luck explains, and too few of their later reports exist yet to confirm the labels hold. How it is tested.

By outlet · where the column credits one

Outlets: rumours traced and the label their record earns
Outlet	Rumours traced	Source
The Rumour Mill itself
The Mirror
Daily Mail
The Sun
Daily Star
Daily Express
L'Equipe
The Times
The Telegraph
La Gazzetta dello Sport
Tuttosport
Bild
a reporter on X
Sky Sports
Marca
AS
Corriere dello Sport
The Independent
talkSPORT
Evening Standard
Mundo Deportivo
Daily Record
Calciomercato
Sky Italia
Kicker
The Athletic
A Bola
BBC Sport

The estimate behind “similar reports” was tested on the latest season: a Brier score of against for the recent average (lower is better), and the rumours it rated likelier did come true more often.

By season · share that came true within half a year

Before 2012-13 fewer moves are on record, so early seasons are probably understated. A move counts only if Transfermarkt's open dataset or Wikipedia's transfer lists have it.